Delphi and NGT

This week I did some research on Delphi and NGT techniques.  For those of you who aren't familiar with Delphi or NGT, they're techniques to help achieve consensus by a small group of people on a specific topic.  The Delphi methodology begin as a forecasting tool for science and technology.  Organizations used Delphi to assess the direction of long-term trends such as population control, weapon advancements, and automation.  NGT was developed with more of a focus on making quick decisions by a group that incorporate feedback from all participants.  There is also a Modified NGT designed specifically to conduct course evaluations.

When it comes to trying to predict whether a new tool, technology, or innovation is going to be successful, I would recommend the traditional Delphi technique (compared to a modified Delphi technique that doesn't keep particpants anonymous).  After all, Delphi was developed specifically for this purpose.

Delphi Method Implementation
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http://trendsoutheast.org/2011/all-issues/issue-02/delphi-method/


For some additional reading: 
Rowe and Wright (1999): The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 15, Issue 4, October 1999.

The Delphi Method:Techniques and Applications,Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff, Editors © 2002, Murray Turoff and Harold Linstone, TOC III.B.3. The National Drug-Abuse Policy Delphi: Progress Report and Findings to Date, IRENE ANNE JILLSON {http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/ch3b3.html

Bartunek, J.M., & Murnighan, J.K. (1984). "The nominal group technique: Expanding the basic procedure and underlying assumptions", Group and Organization Studies, 9, 417-432.

Forces:
Social - One of the benefits of Delphi is the anonymity of the participants.  This helps prevent groupthink which is prevalent in so many societies.

Temporal - The Delphi method can be very time consuming.  The facilitator meets with the participants separately and must process data between each iteration/reformulation.